Predictions for the Brazilian GP with stats

The championships have been decided, and it seems very likely that Sebastian Vettel will win his ninth GP in a row. Despite this I look forward to the Brazilian GP, mainly due to the fact that it very rarely fails to deliver an exciting GP. Last year, Alonso and Vettel had a fantastic battle for the championship, 2010 had Hulkenberg’s outstanding pole position lap and kept 4 drivers in contention for the title, Button sealed the title in 2009 following a great fight up the field, Hamilton won the title on the final corner in 2008, and lost it by a point in 2007 thanks to the Brazilian Grand Prix. It’s a fantastic track and a worthy season finale.

Now, while bored one afternoon, I decided to try and predict the results of this GP using maths (and excel).  I combined the average team an driver form over the last 5 GPs, with the average team and driver performance at this track over the last 3 years. For example, let’s take Sebastian Vettel.

Average finishing position over the last 5 GPs (Korea, Japan, India, Abu Dhabi and USA) – 1
Average finishing position over the last 3 Brazilian GPs – 3
Average finishing position of the Red Bull over the last 5 GPs – 1.66667
Average finishing position of the Red Bull over the last 3 Brazilian GPs – 2.666667

After I’ve added various weightings to these averages, Vettel comes out as being predicted to finish 1.83333th, which is clearly nonsense. So I did it for all the drivers and put them in order, and, unsurprisingly, Vettel is predicted to finish 1st.

However, to create these ratings, I didn’t include failing to finish, as it would massively skew the ratings, instead I made a % chance to retire. To do this I used retirements by the driver and team over the last 5 GPs, retirements by the team and driver over the last 3 Brazilian GPs, and the average rate of retirement over the last 3 Brazilian GPs. Again let’s take Vettel.

Percentage of races where Vettel retired in the last 5 GPs – 0%
Percentage of races where Vettel retired in the last 3 Brazilian GPs – 0%
Percentage of races where a Red Bull retired in the last 5 GPs – 20%
Percentage of races where a Red Bull retired in the last 3 Brazilian GPs – 0%
Average retirement rate* at the last 3 GPs – 13%

*Retirement rate means what percentage of drivers retire, on average, from this GP.

Overall, again with different weightings assigned, Vettel has a retirement chance of 8%.

Combining this altogether created this prediction. This is primarily for a dry race, as wet races are notoriously more unpredictable.

Position
Driver
Chance of retirement
1st
Sebastian Vettel
8%
2nd
Mark Webber
19%
3rd
Romain Grosjean
21%
4th
Fernando Alonso
2%
5th
Lewis Hamilton
20%
6th
Nico Rosberg
5%
7th
Felipe Massa
2%
8th
Jenson Button
7%
9th
Nico Hulkenberg
4%
10th
Sergio Perez
14%
11th
Paul di Resta
25%
12th
Adrian Sutil
18%
13th
Esteban Gutierrez
5%
14th
Heikki Kovalainen
7%
15th
Jean-Eric Vergne
2%
16th
Daniel Ricciardo
2%
17th
Valtteri Bottas
13%
18th
Pastor Maldonado
26%
19th
Charles Pic
16%
20th
Giedo van der Garde
25%
21st
Jules Bianchi
18%
22nd
Max Chilton
11%

Let’s see how it does!

For a reference this is how I think they’ll finish, stats or no stats!

Position

Driver

1st

Sebastian Vettel

2nd

Romain Grosjean

3rd

Mark Webber

4th

Nico Hulkenberg

5th

Fernando Alonso

6th

Felipe Massa

7th

Lewis Hamilton

8th

Jenson Button

9th

Heikki Kovalainen

10th

Nico Rosberg

11th

Sergio Perez

12th

Paul di Resta

13th

Daniel Ricciardo

14th

Esteban Gutierrez

15th

Adrian Sutil

16th

Valtteri Bottas

17th

Jean-Eric Vergne

18th

Pastor Maldonado

19th

Jules Bianchi

20th

Giedo van der Garde

21st

Charles Pic

22nd

Max Chilton

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s